The Future of Cars

The fact that self-driving cars and cross-nation Hyperloop travel are in our not-too-distant future seems pretty clear. Still, autonomous vehicles remain very much a developing technology. A great many companies and researchers speculate about the autonomous vehicle’s future development and the possible effect they will have on everything related their use as a common means of transportation.

In 2014 Raj Rajkumar, autonomous driving research director at Carnegie-Mellon University, has stated that the artificial intelligence technology necessary for an autonomous car would not be available “anytime soon”; and, that Detroit car manufacturers believe “the prospect of a fully self-driving car arriving anytime soon is ‘pure science fiction'”.

As of January 2016, an ongoing Wikiproject collaboration of company researchers outline possible autonomous vehicle developments: • By 2016, Mercedes plans to introduce “Autobahn Pilot” aka Highway Pilot, the system allows hands-free highway driving with autonomous overtaking of other vehicles; • By 2016, Mobileye expects to release hands-free driving technology for highways. By 2017, Mobileye expects to release autonomous capabilities for country roads; • By 2018, Elon Musk expects Tesla Motors to have developed mature serial production version of fully self-driving cars, where the driver can fall asleep. However, he expects they would be allowed only some years after that, due to regulatory issues; • By 2018, Mobileye expects to release autonomous capabilities for city traffic as well as capabilities where driver is not required to be alert; • By 2018, Nissan anticipates to have a feature that can allow the vehicle maneuver its way on multi-lane highways; • By 2018, Baidu plans to release its fully autonomous system; • By 2020, Volvo envisages having cars in which passengers would be immune from injuries. Volvo also claims vehicles will effectively be “crash free”; • By 2020, Audi, BMW, Daimler, Ford, GM, Google, Kia, Mercedes-Benz, Nissan, Renault, Tesla, and Toyota all expect to sell vehicles that can drive themselves at least part of the time; • By 2020, Google autonomous car project head’s goal to have all outstanding problems with the autonomous car be resolved; • By 2024, Jaguar expects to release an autonomous car; • By 2025, most new GM vehicles will have automated driving functions as well as vehicle-to-vehicle communication technology; • By 2035, IHS Automotive report says will be the year most self-driving vehicles will be operated completely independently from a human occupant’s control; • By 2035, Navigant Research forecasts that autonomous vehicles will gradually gain traction in the market over the coming two decades and by 2035, sales of autonomous vehicles will reach 95.4 million annually, representing 75% of all light-duty vehicle sales; • By 2040, expert members of the Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers (IEEE) have estimated that up to 75% of all vehicles will be autonomous.

The momentum for vehicle autonomy is clearly overwhelming; and America would be wise to invest now in infrastructure that is in keeping with or at a minimum, easily adaptable to these new travel technologies. Indeed, precursor technologies and systems to the autonomous car dates as far back as the 1920s and 30, and today, we are very close.

As to what exactly a self-driving car is, there is some consumer confusion here. Thanks to the automobile manufacturers, as of July 2015, The Economist, notes that “the established automakers’ make a distinction between “autonomous” cars and “self-driving cars”, mostly with good reasons of self-interest”. According to car manufacturers, “autonomous cars will look like the vehicles we drive today, [taking] over from the driver under certain circumstances…. Self-driving cars, they say, are a stage further on”.

Autonomous means having the power for self-government. By definition, an autonomous car and a self-driving car is one-in-the-same; and, we need to be clear about its definition now before we get deep into authoring new legislation specific to these cars. Our courts are already backlogged enough as a result of poorly drafted ambiguous or imprecise legislation.Autonomous vehicles feel their surroundings with technologies such as radar, lidar, GPS, Odometry, and computer vision. These cars have highly advanced control systems that interpret sensory input information in order to identify appropriate navigation paths, as well as obstacles and relevant signage.

Autonomous means having the power for self-government. An autonomous car (driverless car, self-driving car, robotic car) is a vehicle that is capable of sensing its environment and navigating without human input. The steering wheel disappears completely and the vehicle controls 100% of all the driving. It uses an interactive system of software applications, devices, sensors, radar, and GPS mapping. Autonomous vehicles feel their surroundings with technologies like as radar, LIDAR, GPS, Odometer, and computer vision. Many projects claiming vehicle autonomy have, in fact only been automated (made to be automatic by human interaction or non-sensory technology) due to their large reliance on artificial environmental “hints”, such as magnetic strips.

By definition, autonomous vehicles self-update their terrain maps with sensory data inputs that allow the vehicle to maintain its position accuracy _ even when road and weather conditions change; or, when the vehicle enters uncharted or yet unmapped environments. Autonomous cars have highly advanced system controls that correctly analyze the sensory data inputs necessary to identify other cars, pedestrians, and any number of other obstacles it must avoid or maneuver around.

Many historical projects related to vehicle autonomy have in fact only been automated (made to be automatic) due to a heavy reliance on artificial hints in their environment, such as magnetic strips; and, many of the new car projects described as vehicle autonomy are in fact only automatic because “they rely on artificial hints in their environment, such as magnetic strips”. An autonomous car (driverless car, self-driving car, robotic car) is a vehicle that is capable of sensing its environment and navigating without human input. The steering wheel disappears completely and the vehicle does all the driving using an interactive system of sensors, radar, and GPS mapping.

In the United States, the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) proposes a formal classification system. (http://www.nhtsa.gov) Level 0: The driver completely controls the vehicle at all times; Level 1: Individual vehicle controls are automated, such as electronic stability control or automatic braking; Level 2: At least two controls can be automated in unison, such as adaptive cruise control in combination with lane keeping; Level 3: The driver can fully cede control of all safety-critical functions in certain conditions. The car senses when conditions require the driver to retake control and provides a “sufficiently comfortable transition time” for the driver to do so. (example, the Tesla Model S); Level 4: The vehicle performs all safety-critical functions for the entire trip, with the driver not expected to control the vehicle at any time. As this vehicle would control all functions from start to stop, including all parking functions, it could include unoccupied cars. An alternative 5-Level classification system has been published by SAE, an automotive standardisation body.(classifications range from driver assisted systems to fully automated systems) (http://www.adaptive-ip.eu/index).

Advantages: Driverless cars will eventually lead to vast transportation improvements, including: accident reduction; travel efficiency; more available road capacity through a reduction in traffic congestion; increased speed limits for self-driving cars; removal of driver constraints such as intoxication, blindness, over or under age, unlicensed users, and other impairments; reduction of physical space required for vehicle parking; reduction in the need for traffic police; reduction of vehicle insurance premiums; reduction of physical road signage; smoother rides; reduction in car theft, due to the vehicle’s increased awareness; increased ergonomic flexibility inside due to no steering wheel or driver interface, as well as no need for occupants to sit in a forward-facing position; increased ease-of-use of large vehicles such as motorhomes. When used for ridesharing, autonomous cars will reduce the national populous number of cars; enable new business models that aim cost savings over car ownership; eliminate redundant passengers, i.e., robotic cars will operate unoccupied to pick up and deliver passengers, and self-report for maintenance.

What is Ahead. America has considerable work to do in order to prepare for this new age of vehicle automation. Some of our foreseeable challenges include: liability placed on manufacturer of devices and software driving the vehicle; resistance of individuals to forfeit control of their cars; software reliability; car’s computer could potentially be compromised, as could a communication system between cars by disrupting camera sensors, GPS jammers, hacking and spoofing; implementation of a legal framework and establishment of government regulations specific to self-driving cars; drivers being inexperienced and situations arise requiring manual driving capability; loss of driving-related jobs; resistance from professional drivers and unions who perceive job losses; loss of privacy; sharing of information through V2V (Vehicle to Vehicle) and V2I (Vehicle to Infrastructure) protocols; competition for the radio spectrum desired for the car’s sensors and overall communications; car’s potential to be technologically armed with explosives and used as bombs; ethical concerns as where the car’s software decisions are forced to choose between multiple harmful courses of action during an unavoidable crash; susceptibility of the car’s navigation system to different types of weather; probability of need for very high-quality, specialized, maps and behavior fallbacks when maps are out of date; integration of system intelligences able to recognize police and other pedestrian gestures and nonverbal cues; significant adaptations to road infrastructure, including traffic and street light sensor and communication integration.

February 15, 2016 BLOG by Washington, DC Technology Attorney Dorothy Mahoney, “The Future of Cars”